This month, we launched our highly anticipated exclusive research service, BAD BEAT Investing. Together, as an investing community that shares the BAD BEAT Investing Philosophy, we will identify special situations with the potential for outsized returns. We have identified these opportunities for years and now are in a dauntless pursuit to leverage our brand to build a profitable community around these situations. Ultimately, we are looking for massive market mispriced situations and to exploit them for profit.
So, what is it this philosophy?
A “bad beat” is a poker term for a hand in which a player with very strong cards loses to an opponent who is statistically unlikely to win. In other words, it was not supposed to happen that way. How does this relate to investing?
Sometimes, a company is doing everything right, and the market hands it a BAD BEAT following an event such as earnings, crushing the stock.
Sometimes, general sector malaise brings down a stock of a strong competitor unfairly.
Occasionally, the market is just plain wrong, causing investors to misplace bets. We’ve built a brand around these special situations.
Who are we?
We have been writing professionally for 7 years. Quad 7 Capital is a multi-faceted company focused on several divisions, including Quad 7 Research, Quad 7 Partners, and Quad 7 Poker. It came together in late 2016 and was launched in 2017 by a diverse team that consists of a long-time investor, health researcher, financial author, professor, professional poker player, and politician, as well as a network of contributors and consultants.
Quad 7 Research conducts the bulk of analysis seen on Seeking Alpha and various financial sites and is primarily directed by Dr. Christopher F. Davis, a Seeking Alpha contributor with training in epidemiology, statistics, business, and market analytics. Other components of Quad 7 Capital are focused on financial and economic news coverage, political consulting, education, and gaming services. Quad 7 has contributed thousands of articles across various financial sites, and has often been the top long idea generator for Seeking Alpha.
What we do in this service versus the free site
We seek to identify special situations. We have identified these opportunities for years, and now seek to leverage our brand to build a profitable community around these situations.
Like a quality poker player’s bankroll, a quality company’s stock is quick to rebound by continuing to execute effectively while positioning favorably.
We have applied this philosophy in our own investing and shared some of these ideas on the free site here at Seeking Alpha and on Quad7Capital’s website.
This exclusive service will be our primary focus over the next year, with our best research and best ideas being reserved for our members-only forum. We’ve built the BAD BEAT Investing philosophy and the Quad 7 Capital brand around TIMELY coverage of key events. Not just ‘what happened,’ but how and why it happened. Most critical, we discuss how to approach the situation.
Given the time-sensitive nature of some of these ideas, they will be played out long before they can be brought to print through the standard editorial process, which can often run 48 hours in some cases. This lost time erodes potential returns. On the longer term side, where publication delays are less impactful, we will be offering at least one deep value idea per month, with supportive, in depth research for our members.
Our work on the Seeking Alpha free site will remain very active. However, our best and most timely ideas will not be shared outside of our forum. We will continue to offer follow-up coverage of core holdings, or stocks we have a history of covering. These include our coverage of dividend stocks, basic portfolio strategy. Select long ideas, and more. We have been very successful, and are taking this leap to focus our efforts into improving our already impressive returns.
Why a marketplace service?
Interestingly, when the Seeking Alpha marketplace service launched, we considered launching our service over two years ago. We opted against that and continued to focus on building our brand, building our following, and carefully refining our craft.
As we began to mine data and identify misplaced bets throughout the market, we noticed our average return on recommendations was improving. Some of this was a strong market, no doubt. But we caught returns on the long and short side, nailed numerous trades, and watched our demand soar. We decided last fall to put this service together, and spent months ensuring it had the right focus.
Frankly, we believe that our followers deserve this special service, on top of what we offer for free. We opted to offer a marketplace service because it is both cheaper and more efficient in the long run than offering a premium newsletter. Further, this approach allows us to communicate far more regularly, and most importantly, allows members the ability to learn not just from us but from each other as well.
This service is for those looking to flourish under our unique BAD BEAT Investing philosophy. We want to give our highest conviction ideas and our primary attention to those who share in the tenets of this philosophy.
Who will benefit from this service?
Well, you will, of course. More specifically, this exclusive service is geared for both long-term investors seeking a margin of safety through deep value names, and those seeking potential rapid-return trades to buttress their portfolio. We are seeking high alpha and high beta plays. Our best ideas have identified both simultaneously.
Our exclusive ideas are intended for investors seeking positive returns regardless of where the broader market is going. And right now, the market is indeed scary. Subscribers can expect to get exclusive access to actionable, thought-provoking ideas. Members who want numerous ideas to choose from, and want to concentrate on returns and communication, should consider signing up.
Is it really worth paying for?
Well, when one successful trade a year can more than pay for this service, we would argue yes. In the last few weeks alone, we have cited the BAD BEAT Investing philosophy several times. Here is how we have performed on these BAD BEAT rapid-return oriented ideas in just the last few weeks:
|Dicks Sporting Goods (NYSE:DKS)||10.7%|
|Hecla Mining (NYSE:HL)||7.2%|
|Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:MDGL)||14.7%|
|Foot Locker (NYSE:FL)||12.8%|
|Prospect Capital (NASDAQ:PSEC)||9.9%|
|Endeavour Silver (NYSE:EXK)||6.8%|
*Returns are either through 3/21 or through price target achievement outlined in the BAD BEAT Investing forum, and/or free site.
Other calls in the last few weeks have included upgrades from sells to holds, dividend commentary, and names to be avoided. Looking more broadly some of our trade only recommendations include:
- The Meet Group (MEET) 65% return in 5 weeks
- Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) 59% return in 6 weeks
- Express Inc. (EXPR) 86% return in 15 weeks
- Plug Power (PLUG), 221% return in 12 weeks
How about longer term recommendations?
We generally clearly differentiate between a trade, and a longer term buy. Some of the longer term buys that have generated outsized returns include:
- Planet Fitness (PLNT) 150% return in 18 months
- Thor Industries (THO) 159% return in 18 months
- Exelixis (EXEL) 625% return in 36 months
Can you protect our downside?
Look, there is nothing worse than making a recommendation then watching a stock tank. In a perfect world, we would maximize returns, and minimize losses. While we strive for perfection, but also recognize that “we can’t win ’em all.” Not every idea will work out. It is just not realistic.
That is why you have to “know when to Hold’em, and know when to Fold’em.” At the very least, you have to be disciplined. We translate this poker analogy into recommendations for stop losses, entry points, reversion to the mean plays, exit targets, and more.
A prime example here was Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), where we thought we could leverage the Cambridge Analytica fiasco to our favor. Our trade was working out, then the next day the FTC news broke, and the stock cratered another 8%. We took a 2.5% loss and moved on, only to make up for this loss two-fold on our next idea.
Knowing when to fold a hand, or in this case sell at a loss, and move on to the next hand (or next idea), is the greatest sign of a winning player/investor. This is why we think that the service is worth it, in addition to having direct access to our team.
Is this a once a month thing, one a week? More? less?
The volume of ideas will of course depend on what is happening in the market.
You will receive a number of posts per month, with our goal of at least 2-3 a week. Of course, the volume will depend on the situations that arise, with things like earnings season opening up a lot more potential BAD BEAT situations.
For those that are seeking extreme value, fear not. We will be providing at least one of these special situations per month. Why not more? These opportunities are uncommon, just like poker BAD BEATs. We stress that we are not picking these out like candy in a bowl. The identification of these special situations requires immense time and thought. It requires the piecing together of many different materials and research.
We firmly believe the returns generated from the deep value ideas in the medium-to-long-term will far outweigh the rapid-return trading side of the service.
Ready to start WINNING?
We have generated thousands of profitable ideas over the last 7 years. We have spent countless hours responding to questions about our investment ideas and engaging with others on their ideas.
Going forward, we are going to focus our energies on WINNING alongside members of this subscriber community. We want YOU to join.
Start WINNING now with your very first deep value decision by joining BAD BEAT Investing for a one-time only introductory price that is less than a cup of cheap coffee a day.
For the first 35 subscribers ONLY who sign up in the next three weeks:
You will receive LIFETIME access for just $1.36 per day ($495 per year). This will be a legacy price, ONLY available to YOU.
Act now, because after this introductory offer expires, in three weeks, prices will rise for newcomers. We will never offer this low of a price again. EVER. We want YOU as a founding member and will offer you the same low rate for as long as you are a member as a thank you for being a part of this launch.
Are you going to get in the game? Become a founding member of the BAD BEAT Investing Philosophy, and let’s start WINNING together.
Education at a substantial discount
Still not convinced? Let us say a few more things about our forum.
First, our membership dues are substantially lower than other longstanding, and top contributors that are on our level. Why? We believe that our WINNING philosophy should be shared by as many as possible. It will likely take a single trade to pay for our service. But it is not just about returns. It is about YOU.
That brings us to our second point about our rates. What YOU will learn, and the community that builds around the philosophy, has value beyond annual returns. It will help YOU begin to identify these situations and put your hard-earned money to work, for YOU, for YOUR family, and for YOUR future.
Thank you to everyone who is ready to learn and grow together under the BAD BEAT Philosophy.