The market is moving in the right direction after some cooling off of Washington-Beijing trade tension and signs of a pause in U.S. interest rate hikes. Fedspeak will be in style next week, with Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester Mester due to talk on the economy and Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida discussing a paper on the so-called neutral rate. Meanwhile, Chinese financial markets are closed every day next week for the Lunar New Year and the Bank of England holds a meeting on February 7 without any clarity at all on the Brexit solution.
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On the economic calendar, releases are due out in the U.S. on PMI, factory orders and international trade. Ready for the Super Bowl? An estimated +100M viewers will watch the game on CBS (NYSE:CBS). Notable advertisers this year include Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Doritos, Budweiser (NYSE:BUD), Hyundai (OTCPK:HYMLF), Toyota (NYSE:TM), Verizon (NYSE:VZ), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Burger King (NYSE:QSR), Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE:CL) and new PepsiCo (NYSE:PEP) sparkling water brand Bubly, which could be a challenger to LaCroix (NASDAQ:FIZZ) and Sparkling Ice. Keep an eye on how Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) does with its five commercials after the beer giant spent an estimated $50M on exposure for Budweiser, Michelob Ultra, Stella Artois and Bud Light. This year’s game is also the first with sports betting legal in Delaware, New Jersey, Mississippi, West Virginia, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island – which could lead to more action for casino operators such as Dover Downs (NYSE:DDE), Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ:CZR), Penn National Gaming (NASDAQ:PENN) and MGM Resorts (NYSE:MGM). There’s also the delayed State of the Union address on February 5. While usually not an actionable event, traders can’t say for sure there won’t be a wildcard mixed in after seeing some big bets placed on the iShares MSCI Mexico (NYSEARCA:EWW) this week.
Notable earnings reports: Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD), Seagate Technology (NASDAQ:STX), Olin Corp. (NYSE:OLN) and Glu Mobile (NASDAQ:GLUU) on February 4; Disney (NYSE:DIS), BP (NYSE:BP), Snap (NYSE:SNAP), Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:EA), Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ:TTWO), General Motors (NYSE:GM), Viacom (NASDAQ:VIAB) and SkyWorks Solutions (NASDAQ:SWKS) on February 5; Chipotle (NYSE:CMG), Yelp (NYSE:YELP), FireEye (NASDAQ:FEYE) and GoPro (NASDAQ:GPRO) on February 6; Twitter (NYSE:TWTR), GrubHub (NYSE:GRUB), T-Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS) and Yum Brands (NYSE:YUM) on February 7 and Hasbro (NASDAQ:HAS), Tenneco (NYSE:TEN) and Arconic (NYSE:ARNC) on February 8. See Seeking Alpha’s Earnings Calendar for the complete list of earnings reporters.
IPOs expected to price: The IPO market is starting to warm back up after the government shutdown froze action. Alector (ALEC) is due to price its IPO on February 6 and both Harpoon Therapeutics (HARP) and Gossamer Bio (GOSS) are expected to price their share offerings on February 7.
IPO activity: Share lock-ups expire on ElectraMeccanica Vehicles (NASDAQ:SOLO) and Vaccinex (NASDAQ:VCNX) on February 5, as well as Pacific City Financial (NASDAQ:PCB) and Mesa Air (NASDAQ:MESA) on February 6. Sonos (NASDAQ:SONO) delivers its third earnings report as a public company next week. Shares of Sonos trade about 21% below where the company’s IPO was priced and 48% below its post-IPO high.
Projected dividend changes (quarterly): Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE:ADM) to $0.35 from $0.335, Alliance Data (NYSE:ADS) to $0.62 from $0.57, Apartment Investment (NYSE:AIV) to $0.40 from $0.38, Allstate (NYSE:ALL) to $0.52 from $0.46, Allegion (NYSE:ALLE) to $0.27 from $0.21, Ametek (NYSE:AME) to $0.16 from $0.14, Affiliated Managers (NYSE:AMG) to $0.40 from $0.30, Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ:ATVI) to $0.38 from $0.34, Church & Dwight (NYSE:CHD) to $0.23 from $0.2175, Cognizant (NASDAQ:CTSH) to $0.25 from $0.20, Eversource (NYSE:ES) to $0.535 from 50.5, Diamondback (NASDAQ:FANG) to $0.1875 from $0.125, Gilead (GILD) to $0.62 from $0.57, Corning (NYSE:GLW) to $0.21 from $0.18, Hasbro (HAS) to $0.69 from $0.63, Hanesbrands (NYSE:HBI) to $0.16 from $0.15, Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) to $0.385 from $0.37, Humana (NYSE:HUM) to $0.60 from $0.50, Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:ICE) to $0.27 from $0.24, L Brands (NYSE:LB) to $0.30 from $0.60, Microchip (NASDAQ:MCHP) to $0.365 from $0.3645, Moody’s (NYSE:MCO) to $0.50 from $0.44, Prudential Financial (NYSE:PRU) to $0.95 from $0.90, Union Pacific (NYSE:UNP) to $0.88 from $0.80, UPS (NYSE:UPS) to $0.98 from $0.91, Vulcan Materials (NYSE:VMC) to $0.31 from $0.28, Willis Towers (NASDAQ:WLTW) to $0.67 from $0.60, Avnet (NASDAQ:AVT) to $0.21 from $0.20, Community Healthcare Trust (NYSE:CHCT) to $0.4075 from $0.405, CSG Systems (NASDAQ:CSGS) to $0.225 from $0.21, Dunkin’ (NASDAQ:DNKN) to $0.3725 from $0.3475, Highwoods (NYSE:HIW) to $0.485 from $0.4625, Kemper (NYSE:KMPR) to $0.26 from $0.24, Old Dominion (NASDAQ:ODFL) to z$0.15 from $0.13, Power Integrations (NASDAQ:POWI) to $0.17 from $0.16, Primerica (NYSE:PRI) to $0.30 from $0.25, SkyWest (NASDAQ:SKYW) to $0.13 from $0.10, Terex (NYSE:TEX) to $0.12 from $0.10 and Domtar (NYSE:UFS) to $0.445 from $0.435.
Spotlight on Disney: What’s the next big franchise out of Disney? While the company is expected to generate over $1.4B this year from the final Avengers movie and trilogy-concluding Star Wars installment, analysts and investors want to know what the box office answer is for 2020 and beyond. Another key topic with the House of Mouse is the upcoming streaming service. Depending upon which sell-side analyst you read, Disney+ will either be a serious Netflix competitor in five years with +50M subscribers or be more on the size of HBO Now at 7M subs.
AI on display: Open source firm H2O.ai is hosting a two-day event promised to be a deep dive into machine learning and real-world business use cases of artifical intelligence. Speakers at the event include reps from Alteryx (NYSE:AYX), AI4ALL, IBM (NYSE:IBM), Microsoft/LinkedIn (MSFT), Stanley Black & Decker (NYSE:SWK) and Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC).
M&A tidbits: The Hart-Scott Rodino expiration on the Tribune Media (NYSE:TRCO)-Nextsar (NASDAQ:NXST) is on February 7. Sharesholders at Medley Capital (NYSE:MCC) and Medley Management (NYSE:MDLY) vote on the deal with Sierra Income on February 8. Deals appear to be off at GameStop (NYSE:GME) and Papa John’s International (NASDAQ:PZZA), but rumors are back on with CBS-Viacom (NYSE:VIA) and Zayo (NYSE:ZAYO).
Year of the Pig The Chinese New Year holiday holiday arrives on February 5. Ahead of the event, booking trends at five-star hotels in Macau have been very strong in what could be a positive sign for Wynn Macau (OTCPK:WYNMF, OTCPK:WYNMY, WYNN), Sands China (OTCPK:SCHYY, OTCPK:SCHYF, LVS), MGM China (OTCPK:MCHVF, OTCPK:MCHVY, MGM), Galaxy Entertainment (OTCPK:GXYEF) and SJM Holdings (OTCPK:SJMHF, OTCPK:SJMHY). While retail sales in China have slowed to a sub-9% pace, luxury sellers such as Cartier, Louis Vuitton (OTCPK:LVMHF), Coach (NYSE:TPR), Gucci, Burberry (OTCPK:BURBY), Ralph Lauren (NYSE:RL) and Chow Tai Fook (OTCPK:CJEWY) still hope for a big holiday haul.
Super Bowl betting: PlayUSA estimates $325M in legal bets will be placed on the Super Bowl, with Nevada ($160M), New Jersey ($100M) and Pennsylvania ($30M) seeing the bulk of the action. Sportsbooks in Nevada haven’t lost money since 2008 when the New York Giants shocked the New England Patriots. Last year when the Philadelphia Eagles won the game, the win percentage in Nevada was just 0.7% for a total gaming win of $1.17M, while the year before the gaming win was $10.9M for the Patriots victory off a 7.9% win percentage. Of course, the real money for the casino operators over the Super Bowl weekend is from outside the actual sportsbooks, a trend that operators across the U.S. where betting is legal hope to see through the weekend.
Sales reports/business updates: Costco (NASDAQ:COST) and Zumiez (NASDAQ:ZUMZ) update on January sales on February 6, while L Brands (LB), Cato (NYSE:CATO) and Buckle (NYSE:BKE) will post their monthly numbers on February 7.
Defense talk: The Cowen Aerospace/Defense & Industrials Conference runs in New York City on February 6 with a full plate of heavy hitters due to appear. Presenting companies include Vectrus (NYSE:VEC), Northrop Grumman (NYSE:NOC), Raytheon (NYSE:RTN), Boeing (NYSE:BA), Teledyne (NYSE:TDY), Universal Stainless (NASDAQ:USAP), Leidos (NYSE:LDOS) and Honeywell International (NYSE:HON).
Analyst/investor days: Henry Schein (NASDAQ:HSIC) on February 4; Xerox (NYSE:XRX) and Charles Schwab (NYSE:SCHW) on February 5; Limelight Networks (NASDAQ:LLNW) on February 6; resTORbio (NASDAQ:TORC) on February 7.
Upcoming stocks splits: Ohr Pharmaceutical (NASDAQ:OHRP) has a 1-for-20 reverse stock split scheduled for February 4. The company is hoping to regain compliance with Nasdaq’s listing requirements.
Short report: Stocks at risk of extra volatility due to a notably high percentage of short interest as a percentage of total float include Intrexon (NASDAQ:XON), Funko (NASDAQ:FNKO), Turtle Beach (NASDAQ:HEAR), Gogo (NASDAQ:GOGO), Accelerate Diagnostics (NASDAQ:AXDX), Overstock.com (NASDAQ:OSTK), Health Insurance Innovations (NASDAQ:HIIQ), Akcea Therapeutics (NASDAQ:AKCA), PetMed Express (NASDAQ:PETS), OptiNose (NASDAQ:OPTN), Trupanion (NYSE:TRUP), Energous Corporation (NASDAQ:WATT), Spark Energy (NASDAQ:SPKE), Frontier Communications (NYSE:FTR), PHI (NASDAQ:PHII), Shoe Carnival (NASDAQ:SCVL), Fossil (NASDAQ:FOSL) and Redfin (NASDAQ:RDFN).
Gaming conference: Execs from Everi Holdings (NYSE:EVRI), MGM Resorts (MGM), Melco Resorts & Entertainment (NASDAQ:MLCO), Sky Betting and DraftKings (DRAFT) will speak at the ICE London event on February 5-7.
Barron’s mentions: How about some stocks to “outsmart” a dimming outlook for profits? The publication offers up Stryker (NYSE:SYK), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Microsoft (MSFT), Spirit Airlines (NASDAQ:SAVE), Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD), Ball (NYSE:BLL) and Five Below (NASDAQ:FIVE) as companies benefiting from powerful long-term trends with demand. Corning (GLW) is also identified as a stock with a room to run, while ABB (NYSE:ABB) is called out as a Barron’s Pick.